mathsurgery - GCSE SP1

GCSE SP1 - Probability

This unit was about probability – how likely it is that something happens.

Grade	Level
G	3	Probability begins at about level 5. Below this level help yourself to be ready to learn about probability by learning how to use simple fractions and percentages.
F	4
	5c	I understand and use the words for probability, including: impossible, unlikely, even chance, likely and certain. I understand and I can use a probability scale.
E	5b	I can find probabilities based on equally likely outcomes, such as the chance of getting an odd number on a dice.
	5a	I can do a probability experiment and record my results in a frequency table. I can say what my results tell me.
	6c	I know that the probability of all possible outcomes is 1 and use this to find the probability of an event not happening.
D	6b	I can use a systematic method to find all the possible outcomes of a pair of events and use this to find probabilities.
	6a	I can combine the probabilities of mutually exclusive events using the addition rule for OR: given
	7c	I know that relative frequency is used to describe experimental probabilities and can find relative frequencies from experimental data.
C	7b	I can use relative frequency to make predictions about events. I can discriminate between dependent and independent events.
	7a	I know that relative frequency tends towards a better estimate of probability as the number of trials increases and that repeating the same experiment may give different results, particularly in the short-term.
		I can use the multiplication rule for independent events: .
B		I can use probability trees to calculate the probability of combined or consecutive events where the probabilities are independent and so values are the same on both of the second branches.
		I can use probability trees to calculate the probability of combined or consecutive events where the probabilities are dependent and so values are the different on the second branches.
extension (beyond GCSE spec, but in S1)		I can combine the probabilities of any events using the full addition rule for OR: I am learning the mathematical symbols ‘intersection’ = , ‘and’ = , ‘union’ = and ‘or’ = to write such rule I can draw Venn diagrams to understand the meaning of conditional probability and why to subtract the intersection in the full addition rule. I can use conditional probability formula I have explored and investigated combinatorics: I use the factorial symbol ‘n!’ to denote n(n-1)(n-2)…3×2×1 and may use this in the formulae for permutations and combinations.